Publications
Exploratory study on modelling agricultural carbon emissions in Ireland
Sinéad M. Madden, Alan Ryan, Patrick Walsh
MDPI Agriculture
Journal article | 28-12-2021
DOI: 10.3390/agriculture12010034
In 2020, Ireland missed its EU climate emissions target and, without additional measures, will not be on the right trajectory towards decarbonisation in the longer 2030 and 2050 challenges. Agriculture remains the single most significant contributor to overall emissions in Ireland. Without effective mitigating strategies, agricultural emissions have continued to rise. The review aims to explore current research conducted in Ireland regarding environmental modelling within agriculture to identify gaps for further research. 10 models were selected and reviewed regarding modelling carbon emissions from agriculture in Ireland, the GAINS (Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) model used for air pollutants, the JRC-EU-TIMES, (Joint Research Council-European Union-The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) and the Irish TIMES model used for energy, the integrated modelling project Ireland (GAINS & TIMES), the environmental, economic model ENV-Linkages and ENV-Growth along with the IE3 and AGRI-I models. The review found that data on greenhouse gas emissions for 2019 reveals that emissions can be efficiently lowered if the right initiatives are taken. More precise emission factors and adaptable inventories are urgently needed to improve national CO2 reporting and minimise Ireland's agricultural sector’s emissions profile. The Climate Action Delivery Act is a centrally driven monitoring and reporting system for climate action delivery that will help determine optimal decarbonisation from agriculture in Ireland. Multi-modelling approaches will give a better understanding of the technology pathways required to meet decarbonisation ambitions.
An Irish, a Scot, and an English agent walked into a bar. ChatGPT stayed home and adapted the El Farol model to find out why.
Sinéad M. Madden
Social Simulation Conference | Social and Public Health Sciences Unit | University of Glasgow | 2023
Conference Poster
This study explores how OpenAI’s ChatGPT can enhance the El Farol Bar Problem, a classic Agent-Based Model (ABM) in game theory, using NetLogo to aid in educational contexts. By simulating an Irishman, a Scotsman, and an Englishman, ChatGPT enables non-programmers to model complex agent behaviours and decision-making processes through natural language, making ABM accessible for students and researchers. ChatGPT facilitates scenario generation, natural language processing, and data interpretation, allowing users to adapt the El Farol Model in diverse ways to study cultural decision-making styles and collective behaviours. This innovative approach allows for better ABM learning, problem-solving, and scenario exploration.
A systems thinking approach investigating the estimated environmental and economic benefits and limitations of industrial hemp cultivation in Ireland from 2017 to 2021
Sinéad M. Madden, Alan Ryan, Patrick Walsh
MDPI Sustainability
Journal article | 31-03-2022
In Ireland, there may be unrecognised environmental and economic benefits in cultivating industrial hemp for CO2 sequestration. Using a Systems Thinking (ST) approach, this study aims to answer how industrial hemp, which can sequester between 10 tonnes (t) to 22 t of CO2 emissions per hectare, has been helpful towards carbon sequestration efforts in Ireland. A mixed-methods design combining qualitative and quantitative secondary material is used to inform Behaviour over Time Graphs (BoTGs) to illustrate the data from 2017 to 2021. In 2019, at its peak of hemp cultivation in Ireland, the total CO2 emissions from agriculture was 21,156.92 kilotonnes, and the total land cultivated with hemp was 547 hectares, which represented an estimated 0.0079% of total land use and 0.011% of agricultural land use. Based on a sequestration rate of 10 t and 22 t of CO2, industrial hemp could remove between 5470 t and 24,068 t of CO2 in 2019. The total amount of estimated CO2 sequestrated between 2017 and 2021 was between 14,660 t and 64,504 t of CO2. This represents an estimated contribution in carbon tax equivalent of between €348,805 and €1,534,742, respectively.
A Qualitative Causal Loop Diagram Representing the Drivers and Barriers of the Industrial Hemp Market in Ireland
Sinéad M. Madden
International Conference of the System Dynamics Society | Chicago | 2023
Conference paper.
https://proceedings.systemdynamics.org/2023/
The cultivation of industrial hemp may aid Ireland in achieving its goal of zero carbon emissions from agriculture by 2050. However, there is a lack of research on industrial hemp in Ireland. This study aims to identify the drivers and barriers affecting the industrial hemp market in Ireland and how applying a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) can advance our understanding of it. The study used purposive text data from a publicly available transcript to develop a CLD in Vensim. The study found that subsidies and sustainability are the key drivers of the industrial hemp market in Ireland, while negative perceptions of hemp and unsubstantiated claims about its effects are significant barriers. The study demonstrates that it is possible to gain insight into the complexity of Ireland's industrial hemp market by using retrospective analysis of purposive data. The study's framework for developing a CLD can guide future studies in this area. This conceptual model is not meant to be considered complete or accurate, but it serves as a helpful starting point for further research.
System Dynamics in Ireland: Past, Present and Future Research and Education Opportunities
Sinéad M. Madden
International Conference of the System Dynamics Society | Chicago | 2023
Conference paper.
https://proceedings.systemdynamics.org/2023/
The research aims to identify System Dynamics courses available at the 3rd level in Ireland and will explore associated research undertaken within this modelling method. This will provide an understanding of the existing research conducted in Ireland and identify potential gaps for future research opportunities. A thematic analysis synthesising System Dynamics modelling research in Ireland was developed for the papers extracted. This provides for a new interpretive schema and configuration. The research found that undergraduate and postgraduate level courses in computational and mathematical modelling are available in higher education institutions in Ireland. Still, no exit degree courses are available by name, i.e., System Dynamics Modelling. Skills in this modelling paradigm are challenging to find and will be required to build a qualified workforce for the future. Stand-alone System Dynamics and exit degree courses may be needed for a contemporary curriculum design and the delivery of effective STEM education in Ireland.
Bridging complexity for hybrid perspectives: Modifying the Bass System Dynamic & Rogers Agent-Based Models
Sinéad M. Madden
International Conference of the System Dynamics Society | Bergan | 2024
Conference paper.
https://proceedings.systemdynamics.org/2024/
The area of multi-method hybrid modelling is attracting growing attention because of its ability to gain perspectives from a top-down and bottom-up perspective using SD and ABM. The original contribution to knowledge is a multi-method hybrid SD and ABM that includes a GIS. This study explores hemp’s potential for carbon sequestration in Ireland’s agricultural sector, integrating insights from environmental science, sustainable agriculture, and systems sciences to address emissions mitigation needs. The study analyses hemp farming adoption dynamics among Irish landowners by combining SD and ABM, leveraging historical data from the Health Products Regulatory Authority (HPRA). Adapting the Bass and Rogers diffusion of innovation models into a hybrid SD-ABM framework programmed in NetLogo using the SD modeller extension, the study offers preliminary insights into hemp farming adoption dynamics, contributing to evidence-based policy-making and advancing hybrid simulation modelling for complex environmental challenges.
A State-of-the-Art review: Ireland, a model state?
Sinéad M. Madden, Alan Ryan, Patrick Walsh
International Conference of the System Dynamics Society | Bergan | 2020
Conference paper
https://proceedings.systemdynamics.org/2020/papers/P1284.pdf
This review examines the state-of-the-art hybrid simulation modelling and mixed methodologies, focusing on their role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and advancing a circular green economy in Ireland by 2050. Ireland has missed its 2020 EU climate targets and faces significant challenges in achieving its 2030 and 2050 decarbonisation goals. To address these challenges, hybrid simulation techniques—combining System Dynamics (SD), Agent-Based Modelling (ABM), and Discrete Event Simulation (DES)—offer innovative solutions. The review highlights the application of these methodologies in environmental and economic models, such as the GAINS and Irish TIMES models, which have been used to inform policy decisions. This study also underscores the importance of integrated policy analysis that considers air, climate, economy, and health impacts and calls for further research into using hybrid simulation modelling to enhance Ireland’s policy decision-making in pursuit of sustainability goals.